Probability
2026-09-08
bayesian networks from first principles — the chain rule, conditional probability tables, d-separation and its valve intuition, markov blankets, i-maps, naive bayes classifiers and gaussian networks.
logistic regression developed honestly as a GLM, from MATH5806: bernoulli in canonical form, the logit link, IRLS from scratch in R, deviance and odds-ratio inference, separation, and the machine-learning reading as corollary.
| # | Course Code | Title | Offered | Prerequisites | Term | Type | Textbook | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | COMP6713 | Natural Language Processing | T1 | MATH1081,9444 | 26T1 | Elective | na | |
| 2. | FINS5513 | Investments and Portfolio Selection | T1,2,3 | 8750 program | 26T1 | Elective | na | |
| 3. | FINS5536 | Fixed Income Securities and Interest Rate Derivatives | T2 | 5513 | 26T2 | Elective | na | pricing, hedging, risk management. options, futures and swaps (int rate derivs) |
| 4. | MATH5856 | Introduction to Statistics and Statistical Computations | T2 | 26T2 | Elective | na | recommended for 5905 | |
| 6. | MATH5960 | Bayesian Inference and Computation | T3 | 2801/2901 | 26T3 | Elective | ||
| 7. | MATH5825 | Measure, Integration and Probability | T3 | U5705 | 26T3 | Elective | na | implicit prereq for 5835 |
| 8. | MATH5905 | Statistical Inference | T1,2,3 | U5846,U5856 | 27T1 | Core | na | |
| 9. | COMP9518 | Advanced Machine Learning | T2 | 9517 | 27T2 | Elective | na | |
| 10. | MATH5845 | Time Series | T2 | 27T2 | Elective | na | ||
| 11. | MATH5855 | Multivariate Analysis | T3 | 27T3 | Elective | na | ||
| 12. | MATH5835 | Advanced Stochastic Processes | T1 | U5825 | 28T1 | Core | na | Difficult. Requires an understanding of Real Analysis and Measure Theory |
| 13. | MATH5806 | Applied Regression Analysis | T2 | 28T2 | Elective | na | splines, poisson / binomial regression | |
| 14. | MATH5925 | Project (12uoc) | T1,2,3 | 36UoC | 28T2 | Core | na |
course pages
Per-course write-ups — admin, textbooks, and links into my notes and solutions — for the courses I have completed:
the probabilistic graphical models section — bayesian and markov networks, exact and approximate inference, sequence models, and learning from data. built from unsw's comp9418.
As is tradition, the prize pool has increased (to $300 this year).
I have collapsed first and second place into a winner-takes-all arrangement (c’est la vie).
Furthermore, there are additional changes to the structure of this Game:
- you must now pass the problem set to be awarded the prize money;
- you may submit your solutions to the problem set at any point in the future;
- if you plagiarise work, I reserve the right to ban you from all subsequent competitions — grim trigger
- the problem and solution set will now be courteously supported by MathJaX, TikZ, and my own JavaScript
- Good luck!
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Links
Structure
Most notably, the structure from this year has changed. Instead of just offering a single PDF and then writing up solutions on this site, the problems themselves are accessible from below and once 2025 transpires, my solutions will be available as toggled nested environments.
manufactured by amazon!
there is also a corresponding solution manual which I have found